So every year I do my “ArMadden” Season Long Projections for the NFL Season. These projections are based on last year’s outcomes, changes in free agency, additions through the draft, Strength of Schedule (SoS), and some just gut calls. I try to be as objective as possible by compiling a spreadsheet of every team in order of standings from the previous year and each team’s upcoming schedule. Once laid out, I go right down the list and start picking games as either wins, losses, or “toss ups.” Next, I circle back around and reorder the teams based on the projected standings. Then I analyze each individual matchup/exploitation of matchups, giving teams and odd number of “toss ups” to predict a season win total that comes out to the half point (0.5). Finally, I take the under.
I do not look at Vegas, ESPN, Bleacher Report or any other predictions when making my own. Lastly, I specifically call these “projections” as opposed to “predictions” because they are exactly that; projections. This isn’t necessarily what I THINK will happen or what actually WILL happen. Instead, it is a projections of what SHOULD happen based on the above factors and more. I will start with the entire NFL, separate the teams out into the NFC and AFC and then break down each division. At the end, I will have the NFC and AFC playoff scenarios based on seeding (with tiebreakers) with my Super Bowl Pick for this year. Enjoy!
BTW: If you want to understand how tiebreakers work in the NFL, check out: https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
National Football League Standings (NFL):
1. Minnesota Vikings (13-3)
T-2. Los Angeles Rams (12-4)
T-2. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
T-2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
T-2. Carolina Panthers (12-4)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
T-7. New England Patriots (10-6)
T-7. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
T-7. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
T-7. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
T-7. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
T-7. Houston Texans (10-6)
T-7. New York Giants (10-6)
T-14. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
T-14. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
T-14. Chicago Bears (8-8)
T-17. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
T-17. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
T-17. Detroit Lions (7-9)
T-17. Cincinatti Bengals (7-9)
T-17. Washington Redskins (7-9)
T-17. Denver Broncos (7-9)
T-17. Cleveland Browns (7-9)
24. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
T-25. Oakland Raiders (5-11)
T-25. Indianapolis Colts (5-11)
T-27. New York Jets (3-13)
T-27. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
T-29. Arizona Cardinals (2-14)
T-29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)
T-31. Miami Dolphins (2-14)
T-32. Buffalo Bills (2-14)
National Football Conference (NFC):
1. Minnesota Vikings (13-3)
T-2. Los Angeles Rams (12-4)
T-2. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
T-2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
T-2. Carolina Panthers (12-4)
T-6. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
T-6. New York Giants (10-6)
T-8. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
T-8. Chicago Bears (8-8)
T-10. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
T-10. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
T-10. Detroit Lions (7-9)
T-10. Washington Redskins (7-9)
14. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
T-15. Arizona Cardinals (2-14)
T-15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)
American Football Conference (AFC):
1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
T-2. New England Patriots (10-6)
T-2. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
T-2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
T-2. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
T-2. Houston Texans (10-6)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
T-8. Cincinatti Bengals (7-9)
T-8. Denver Broncos (7-9)
T-8. Cleveland Browns (7-9)
T-11. Oakland Raiders (5-11)
T-11. Indianapolis Colts (5-11)
T-13. New York Jets (3-13)
T-13. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
T-15. Miami Dolphins (2-14)
T-15. Buffalo Bills (2-14)
National Football Conference:
NFC North:
- Minnesota Vikings (13-3)
- Green Bay Packers (12-4)
- Chicago Bears (8-8)
- Detroit Lions (7-9)
NFC East:
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
- New York Giants (10-6)
- Washington Redskins (7-9)
- Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
NFC South:
- Carolina Panthers (12-4)
- New Orleans Saints (10-6)
- Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)
NFC West:
- Los Angeles Rams (12-4)
- Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
- Arizona Cardinals (2-14)
American Football Conference:
AFC North:
- Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
- Cleveland Browns (7-9)
- Cincinatti Bengals (7-9)
AFC East:
- New England Patriots (10-6)
- New York Jets (3-13)
- Miami Dolphins (2-14)
- Buffalo Bills (2-14)
AFC South:
- Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
- Houston Texans (10-6)
- Indianapolis Colts (5-11)
- Tennessee Titans (3-13)
AFC West:
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
- Denver Broncos (7-9)
- Oakland Raiders (5-11)
NFC Playoff Picture:
- NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (13-3)
- NFC West: Los Angeles Rams (12-4)
- NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
- NFC South: Carolina Panthers (12-4)
- Wild Card No. 1: Green Bay Packers (12-4)
- Wild Card No. 2: New York Giants (10-6)
- In the Hunt: New Orleans Saints (10-6)
AFC Playoff Picture:
- AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- AFC East: New England Patriots (10-6)
- AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
- AFC North: Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
- Wild Card No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
- Wild Card No. 2: Houston Texans (10-6)
- In the Hunt: Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
NFC Wild Card Round:
3. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4) vs. 6. New York Giants [or New Orleans Saints] (10-6)
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
4. Carolina Panthers (12-4) vs. 5. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Winner: Green Bay Packers
AFC Wild Card Round:
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6) vs. 6. Houston Texans (10-6)
BTW: Based on the division winner, these seeds may be switched with the same teams. Both of these defenses are going to be lethal, but I trust Deshaun Watson over Blake Bortles in the playoffs, especially without Marquise Lee.
Winner: Houston Texans
4. Baltimore Ravens (10-6) vs. 5. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
BTW: The rookie will handle this nasty Ravens defense in his first playoff appearance, while a healthy Joe Flacco returning to the playoffs with weapons will look reminiscent of their last Super Bowl run.
NFC Divisional Round:
1. Minnesota Vikings (13-3) vs. 3. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
BTW: Both teams are loaded on both sides of the ball, but the OL will be the difference.
2. Los Angeles Rams (12-4) vs. 5. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
BTW: Aaron Rodgers will do his thing, but the defense is going to have to show up against this potent Rams offense. Can’t trust them until we see it.
AFC Divisional Round:
1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) vs. 6. Houston Texans (10-6)
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
2. New England Patriots (10-6) vs. 4. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
NFC Championship:
2. Los Angeles Rams (12-4) vs. 3. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
NFC Champion: Los Angeles Rams
BTW: This is the matchup we’ve all been waiting for. Two potential dynasties loaded with weapons on both sides of the ball, fueled by young QBS that went numbers 1 and 2 in the 2016 NFL Draft. The Rams new additions in Brandin Cooks, Marcus Peters, Ndamukong Suh and Aqib Talib will make the difference.
AFC Championship:
1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) vs. 4. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
AFC Champion: Los Angeles Chargers
BTW: This is a great matchup on paper. If it comes down to the last possession with the ball in Rivers hands, we’ll find out how clutch he is. If its in Flacco’s, I’m not so sure he gets it done. It’s a toss up.
Super Bowl LIII:
2. Los Angeles Rams (12-4) vs. 1. Los Angeles Chargers
Super Bowl Champion: Los Angeles Rams
BTW: An All-LA Super Bowl just 2 years after there were no teams in Los Angeles. Who would’ve ever thought this would happen? The Rams are just too good this year and have a better coach in Sean McVay.
My Name is "Great Expectations" 